Accounting for causality when measuring sales lift from television advertising: Television campaigns are shown to be more effective for lighter brand users

Establishing causality has long been an issue in the advertising-to-sales relationship. The ideal approach in establishing causality is randomized assignment of matched respondents to an exposure and non-exposure group.
Assael, Ishihara and Kim

MANAGEMENT SLANT

  • Refined methods of statistical matching are an effective substitute for experimentation in accounting for causality in the television advertising-to-sales relationship.
  • Such matching must account for both demographic characteristics and pre-campaign purchase behavior.
  • In controlling for endogeneity and accounting for heterogeneity in the television advertising-to-sales relationship, causal results showed that the campaign for the focal brand was most effective in influencing light as opposed to heavy users.
  • Failure to control for endogeneity results in the opposite effect; that is, the campaign is most effective in influencing heavy users.

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