On the myth of reported precision in public opinion polls

Many public opinion polls report a mythical margin of error. These reported margins of error are calculated on the basis of a nonexistent (fictitious) dichotomous poll question and are completely unrelated to the actual question responses in a poll.

Introduction

Public opinion polls are ubiquitous in societies worldwide. They are conducted by, and their results reported and/or consumed by, entities that include governments, media, universities, nonprofits, and companies. As such, polls are used to gauge a public's attitudes, opinions, and perceptions, inform various publics and decision makers, and, at times, attempt to influence various publics and decision makers.

Consider the following prototypical examples of public opinion poll results:

  • On 28 November 2016, Ipsos Australia reported that a "national [telephone] poll of 1,403 respondents ... shows the Labor party on 51 % ... with the Coalition on 49% ...." It...

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